AWWA INF55775

This paper focuses on decision- making under uncertainty, with the focus on especially long term uncertainty. Specifically, the paper looks at whether uncertainty analysis can be improved in the first strategic phase of the drinking water infrastructure design process. The paper is arranged as follows: first, the characteristics of uncertainty and the importance of uncertainty analysis are explained in relation to design processes. Then a systems approach is presented that can help in identification of and communication about uncertainty. This approach will be used in practical cases to study how uncertainty is dealt with in practice and to what extent it differs from theory. Examples from Dutch experience are given that show what lessons can be learned from the past on how to deal with uncertainty about the future. The cases all involve Dutch regional design and planning of resource management, drinking water treatment and transportation. Finally, the first case study results are presented. Includes 12 references, figures.