AWWA WQTC52867

The Surface Water Analytical Tool (SWAT) has been used to evaluate futuredrinking water regulatory options. SWAT utilizes the predictive USEPA WaterTreatment Plant Model (WTPM) to forecast which treatment technologies are neededto comply with a given regulatory option. The WTPM algorithms all exhibitpredictive errors that can influence the selection of treatment technologieswithin SWAT. This prediction of treatment selection--specifically, the proportionof plants predicted to select various technologies to meet a given regulatoryscenario--is known as a compliance forecast. As with any programmatic process,the predictions by SWAT are anticipated to have errors. In order to understandhow predictive errors influence treatment technology selections within SWAT, anuncertainty model was created using Crystal Ball (R), a simulation softwareadd-in for Microsoft Excel. This uncertainty model, the Technology SelectionUncertainty Model (TSUM), quantifies how predictive errors influence technologyselections. Includes 4 references, tables, figures.